What’s happening in Bolivia? From the botched 2019 elections to MAS’ triumphal return in 2020, and beyond

Resumen

After winning three presidential elections in a row — 2005 (53.74%), 2009 (64.22%) and 2014
(61.36%) — Evo Morales only got 47.08% in the controversial 2019 election, where he was undermined
by accusations of fraud by opponents and international observers. The upshot in 2019 was his
overthrow amid street protests, police mutinies and intervention by the Armed Forces. However,
almost exactly a year later his party —MAS — won 55.1% of the votes and returned to power on the
Luis Arce and David Choquehuanca ticket. What seemed then like a triumphant return of Bolivia’s
only party with real ties to broad swathes of society would soon be riven by divisions when
selecting candidates for the ‘departmental’ [regional] elections in March 2021. Evo Morales’ return
from exile in November 2020 and his efforts to stay in charge of the party, and above all to
hand-pick candidates himself, led to major internal rifts and electoral defeats. This paper
analyses the reasons for the overthrow of the hitherto unbeaten former President and his party, as
well as for MAS’ swift return to power. In doing so, we focus on the party’s relations with its
social bases and its dwindling political support during its long, uninterrupted spell in office. It
also delves into the transitions of the current period and the impact the political reshuffle in
the wake of the 2021 departmental elections may foreshadow for the party’s future.