Voting Transitions in the 2019 Valencian Autonomous Community’s Elections

Paraules clau: vote transitions, ecological inference, Spanish elections


The political fragmentation following the 2008 Financial Crisis and its economic, social, political and institutional fall-out have led to a growing left-right polarisation of politics and a weakening of the middle ground. The effective number of parliamentary parties is at an all-time high both in
the Spanish Parliament (Congreso) and in the Valencian Autonomous Parliament (Corts). Voters are spoilt for choice and switch party more often. This paper uses transfer matrices to analyse the shifting voting patterns in the European, General, Regional, and Local elections held during 2019 in The Valencian Country. The most salient result is the ever-shifting pattern at each end of the political spectrum. On the right wing, there is the steady advance of Vox. On the left wing, UP and Compromís draw from virtually the same pool of fickle voters, with UP picking up most votes in national elections and Compromís winning hands-down in regional and local elections.



Autor Biografies

Jose M Pavia, Universitat de Valencia

He has a Degree in Mathematics and a PhD in Economics. Pavía is the Director of the Electoral Processes and Public Opinion Research Group, and Full Professor of Quantitative Methods at Valencia University (UV). His research interests include electoral processes, forecasting, statistical machine) learning, ecological inference, experiments, surveys, crime detection, public opinion, regional economy, and inequality. 

Cristina Aybar, Universitat de València

She has a PhD in Economics and Business Science and is a tenured Professor at Universitat de València (UV). Aybar has published various studies on: over-population models; the estimation of proportions; panel data; funding Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs); survey methodology; ‘barometers’ for Spain’s Sociological Research Centre (CIS). She has also taken part in research groups covering: Electoral Processes and Public Opinion Research Group; Adaptation to the Eurostat Standard for Local Economic Indicators.


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Com citar
Pavia, J. M. and Aybar, C. (2020) “Voting Transitions in the 2019 Valencian Autonomous Community’s Elections”, Debats. Revista de cultura, poder i societat, 50, pp. 27-49. doi: 10.28939/iam.debats-en.2020-2.