Electoral mobility in the 2019 elections in the Valencian region

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.28939/iam.debats.134-1.3

Keywords:

vote transitions, ecological inference, Spanish elections.

Abstract

The political fragmentation following the 2008 Financial Crisis and its economic, social, political and institutional fall-out have led to a growing left-right polarisation of politics and a weakening of the middle ground. The effective number of parliamentary parties is at an all-time high both in the Spanish Parliament (Congreso) and in the Valencian Autonomous
Parliament (Corts). Voters are spoilt for choice and switch party more often. This paper uses transfer matrices to analyse the shifting voting patterns in the European, General, Autonomous and Local elections held during 2019 in the Valencian Region. The most salient result is the ever-shifting pattern at each end of the political spectrum. On the right wing, there
is the steady advance of VOX. On the left wing, UP and Compromis draw from virtually the same pool of fickle voters, with UP picking up most votes in national elections and Compromis winning hands down in regional and local elections.

Author Biographies

  • Jose M Pavia, University of Valencia
    Catedratico de Universidad, Departamento de Economia Aplicada, Area Metodos Cuantitativos
  • Cristina Aybar, University of Valencia

    Cristina Aybar Doctora en Ciències Econòmiques i Empresarials, i professora titular en la Universitat de València. Ha publicat estudis sobre models de superpoblació i estimació de proporcions, sobre dades de panell i finançament de les pimes, i sobre metodologia d'enquestes i els baròmetres del CIS. Ha participat en els grups d'investigació Processos Electorals i Opinió Pública, i Adaptació de l'Estàndard Eurostat per a Indicadors Econòmics Locals.

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Published

2020-05-29

Issue

Vol. 134 No. 1 (2020)

Section

SPECIAL ISSUE

License

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How to Cite

Pavia, J.M. and Aybar, C. (2020) “Electoral mobility in the 2019 elections in the Valencian region”, Debats. Journal on culture, power and society, 134(1), pp. 27–51. doi:10.28939/iam.debats.134-1.3.